Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Stockton to file for bankruptcy, will be largest U.S. city to fail

Stockton bankruptcy
Expensive waterfront redevelopment projects are one reason for Stockon's financial problems. The city has the second-highest rate of foreclosures in the country and the second-highest rate of violent crime in the state. (Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times / February 28, 2012)
STOCKTON — This Gold Rush-era port city, an epicenter of California's agricultural exports, will become the nation's largest city to seek protection under the U.S. bankruptcy code after its City Council on Tuesday stopped bond payments, slashed employee health and retirement benefits and adopted a day-to-day survival budget.

City Manager Bob Deis likened the process to cutting off an arm to save the body. He is expected to file bankruptcypapers immediately.

A Delta wind had scrubbed the Central Valley sky blue as residents gathered hours early for the 5:30 p.m. meeting.

Most knew what the night held; bankruptcy has been a long time coming. Stockton has been in negotiations with its creditors since late March under AB 506, a new California law requiring mediation before a municipality can file for reorganization of debt. It was the first use of the law, and policy analysts who watched its torturous and tedious progress have titled their report on it "Death by a Thousand Meetings." Mediations ended Monday at midnight.

Recent council meetings have been boisterous and contentious. Tuesday night's meeting was quieter, with an evident sadness on faces in the packed audience. Many residents said they were there mostly to hear for themselves that the day so long expected had finally come.

"It's a seminal moment in this city's history and I needed to be here," said Dwight Williams, who runs a nonprofit housing organization. "I can't just read about this in tomorrow's paper. I need to hear for myself if there is some inkling as to where we go from here."

La Vonne Belli, 84, said she was there to hear what people had to say.

"I don't mean those people up there on the dais in their comfortable chairs. I mean the little people, the real people," she said. "The ones who have to keep muddling through somehow."

Almost all who spoke to the council began with some version of: "I was born and raised here."

Although a city of almost 300,000, Stockton is a place where many families have known one another for generations. The most impassioned speakers argued on behalf of others, with the main rallying cry a plea to keep health insurance for retirees with illnesses. A high school student spoke of his aunt, a retired city worker with cancer, and a retired fire chief spoke of his former secretary who cares for her ill husband.

"People look at me and say, 'Well he can afford his own insurance,' and I can," said Gary Gillis, the retired chief. "But how about the ones who mowed the lawns, went in the sewers, typed my letters? We have to protect the most vulnerable among us."

Experts say there are no clear answers to what comes next for Stockton or how its fall will affect the rest of the state. Other cities hit hard by the housing bust and state budget crisis are negotiating with employee unions for concessions and are watching to see if municipal bankruptcy proves medicine or poison.

The stated purpose of AB 506 — to forestall a municipal bankruptcy — failed, but severalbankruptcy attorneys said the mediation may help Stockton avoid the string of lawsuits that faced the smaller city of Vallejo, which recently emerged from a bankruptcy case filed in 2008.

How Stockton found itself so mired in debt can be seen everywhere in the city's core. There is a sparkling marina, high-rise hotel and promenade financed by credit in the mid-2000s, mere blocks from where mothers won't let their children play in the yard because of violence.

During the economic boom, this working-class city with pockets of entrenched poverty tried to reinvent itself as a draw to Bay Area refugees and a popular site for conventions. It offered generous city employee pension plans and benefits.

Vast housing tracts of two-story homes were built at the city's edges. Private citizens, like the city, bought on credit. Those neighborhoods would soon have among the highest rates of foreclosures in the nation.

Indeed, when the bust came, few places fell as hard as Stockton. The city has the second-highest rate of foreclosures in the country and the second-highest rate of violent crime in the state.

The city made $90 million in drastic cuts from the general fund in the last three years, including reducing the police department by 25%, the fire department by 30%, and cutting pay and benefits to all employees. There is a state investigation into whether Stockton's financial devastation was entirely due to shortsighted optimism or if there was corruption. The state mediation law requires assigning blame.

But on Tuesday some of the blame and anger seemed to be set aside for a moment.

"All that's left is sadness," said Gillis, who said he lived his boyhood dream by becoming fire chief in his hometown. "Stockton has the most good, solid, down-to-earth people you'll ever meet. And now things are going to get even harder for many of them."

diana.marcum@latimes.com

Saturday, June 23, 2012

Merkel to meet France's Hollande on Wednesday


BERLIN: German Chancellor Angela Merkel will meet French President Francois Hollande late on Wednesday ahead of a key European summit, a spokesman for the German government told Reuters on Saturday.

"The purpose of the meeting is to prepare for the European Council on Thursday and Friday," the spokesman said.

Hollande wants next week's European summit to agree on more than just a growth package before he is ready to ratify the bloc's fiscal pact, a French diplomatic source said on Friday.

Hollande, who won backing from the leaders of Germany, Italy and Spain in Rome on Friday for his growth proposals, also wants an EU-wide agreement on progress towards banking sector integration and other financial stability measures, the source said.

On Friday, Merkel threw her support behind a growth package worth 130 billion euros, equivalent to 1 percent of European Union gross domestic product, following talks with other European leaders on reviving the continent's economy.

Asked if an EU deal to invest 1 percent of the bloc's GDP to restart growth would be enough for France to ratify the budget discipline pact agreed earlier this year, the French diplomatic source said: "No. We would need more. The growth element is essential, but so is the financial stability element."

Hollande is due to meet the head of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi and France's Central Bank Governor Christian Noyer on Monday.

Moody’s Downgrades — Should We Care?



Read other related stories about this:
Mike Segar / Files / Reuters
MIKE SEGAR / FILES / REUTERS
You’d be forgiven for asking who cares about Moody’s downgrading yesterday of 15 of the world’s biggest banks, including giants like Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America. After all, Moody’s is one of the credit-ratings agencies that ranked subprime-mortgage bonds AAA before they exploded into the financial crisis.
What’s more, though the S&P fell 2.44% before yesterday’s closing bell, the downgrades had largely been priced in already. That’s because Moody’s had been warning about the action since February, and since then, there’s been plenty of bad economic news — the worsening of the euro-zone crisis, slowing growth in the U.S. and emerging markets and fears of a global double dip — that has affected many banks’ balance sheets. Recall that JPMorgan’s recent high-profile $3 billion loss was the result of a trade designed to hedge the risk that a lot of plain-vanilla loans were going south as the global economy worsened.
The credit downgrade means two important things for banks. One is that many institutions they do business with face rules about the credit ratings of their counterparts — and those financial players might be inclined to shorten contracts or demand more collateral to do business with the downgraded banks. As a result, the downgraded banks may see their costs of doing business rise by a few billion dollars (which, it’s worth noting, is still chump change for most of these institutions).
We’ll know more about the immediate impact of the downgrades as the market starts to move on Friday, but longer-term, there’s no doubt where things are headed. Banks’ profit margins are being squeezed as they are under pressure to hold more capital, take less risk and basically act a lot more conservatively than they have in the past. In short, banks are slowly but surely moving from being casinos to being utilities. For more on the hows and whys of that, check out some of the seminal articles on “The New Normal” written by the very smart folks at PIMCO right after the financial crisis.


Read more: http://business.time.com/2012/06/22/moodys-downgrades-should-we-care/?xid=rss-topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+time%2Ftopstories+%28TIME%3A+Top+Stories%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher#ixzz1yczQZ1Jq

Friday, June 22, 2012

Turkey says it will take ‘steps’ after determining that Syria shot down missing jet


OSMAN ORSAL/REUTERS - Turkey lost a F-4 warplane, similar to the one pictured, over the Mediterranean on June 22, 2012, and Turkey is investigating whether it crashed or was shot down.
BEIRUT — Turkey vowed to take “necessary steps” after concluding that Syria shot down a Turkish fighter jet near the Syrian border on Friday, sending tensions soaring in the already fraught region.
In a terse statement issued after an emergency security meeting summoned by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish government said that a missing F-4 fighter jet had been brought down by Syria. The statement said Turkey “will make its final position known once the evidence is fully uncovered and will determinedly take necessary steps.”
Gallery

Taliban attacks lakeside hotel in Kabul

Taliban attacks lakeside hotel in Kabul
At least 15 are killed as suicide bombers take hostages and set off gunbattle with Afghan troops.

Son of Mexico’s ‘El Chapo’ arrested

Son of Mexico’s ‘El Chapo’ arrested
Mexican marines captured a son of the Sinaloa drug cartel leader Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman early Thursday, according to U.S. and Mexican law enforcement officials.

Beating the summer heat

Beating the summer heat
A glimpse into how people (and animals) around the world are cooling off this summer..
The fate of the jet’s two pilots was unknown, and Turkey said that Syrian vessels had joined in a massive search operation in the eastern Mediterranean where the plane was thought to have gone down. The Turkish military said earlier that it had lost contact with the warplane shortly before noon as it flew over the southern Turkish province of Hatay.
After Turkey, a NATO member, confirmedthe shooting, a Syrian military spokesman issued a statement acknowledging that it had shot the plane down at 11:40 a.m., after it approached Syria at low altitude from the sea.
“An unidentified aerial target violated Syrian airspace, coming from the west at a very low altitude and at high speed over territorial waters, so the Syrian anti-air defenses counteracted with anti-aircraft artillery,” said the statement, carried by the official news agency SANA. The plane was less than a mile away from the Syrian coast when it was hit and it came down about six miles away, in Syrian territorial waters, the statement said.
The incident underscored the region’s jittery mood as the Syrian revolt degenerates into an armed conflict that many fear will spill beyond its borders, draw in its neighbors and perhaps prompt wider international military intervention.
Compounding the tensions, Turkey has emerged as the main conduit for the new supplies of weaponry that are now flowing to Syrian rebels with funds from Saudi Arabia and Qatar and facilitated in part by the United States. More than 30,000 Syrian refugees have flooded into southern Turkey over the past year, and the leadership of the rebel Free Syrian Army is being housed at one of the refugee camps.
It is not the first time Turkey has been ensnared in the violence since the uprising against President Bashar al-Assad’s rule erupted 15 months ago, souring the once close relationship between Damascus and Ankara. After Syrian forces fired shots across the border into a Syrian refugee camp in April, Turkey threatened to invoke a mutual defense clause in the NATO charter.
Syria seemed eager to downplay the incident. “There was no aggression,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi said on his Twitter account. “It was an unidentified target flying at very low range when it violated Syrian airspace.” He also emphasized the role Syrian vessels were playing in helping search for the missing pilots.
The shooting nonetheless comes at a moment of heightened concern about the spiraling violence in Syria in the wake of the collapse of a U.N. peace plan brokered by special envoy Kofi Annan. The U.N. monitors who were dispatched to Syria to observe a now nonexistent cease-fire have been confined to their hotels because it is too dangerous for them to go out, and the Security Council remains divided over what alternatives to pursue.
At a news conference in Geneva, Annan warned that unless the international community agrees on a way forward soon, “it will be too late to stop the crisis from spiraling out of control.”
Among the dozens of deaths reported in Syria on Friday were 25 men who had apparently been executed by rebel forces in a mass killing in the province of Aleppo, according to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.A video posted on YouTube showed an array of blood-soaked bodies strewn beside a bullet-ridden pick-up on a deserted, unpaved rural road. Some were wearing military fatigues, others jeans and T-shirts. A voice identifies the dead men as “Assad’s shabiha,” a reference to pro-government militias that the opposition blames for much of the violence taking place.
Syria’s state news agency SANA also reported the killings, saying that “armed terrorists” had committed a “brutal massacre” in the Daret Azzeh area of Aleppo, one of several areas in the province that are slipping out of government control.
Special correspondent Suzan Haidamous contributed to this report

Chinese Data Mask Depth of Slowdown, Economists Say


Gilles Sabrie for The New York Times
Coal stockpiled at Qinhuangdao port, one of the largest coal storage areas in China, reached 9.5 million tons this month.
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HONG KONG — As the Chinese economy continues to sputter, prominent corporate executives in China and Western economists say there is evidence that local and provincial officials are falsifying economic statistics to disguise the true depth of the troubles.
Record-setting mountains of excesscoal have accumulated at the country’s biggest storage areas because power plants are burning less coal in the face of tumbling electricity demand. But local and provincial government officials have forced plant managers not to report to Beijing the full extent of the slowdown, power sector executives said.
Electricity production and consumption have been considered a telltale sign of a wide variety of economic activity. They are widely viewed by foreign investors and even some Chinese officials as the gold standard for measuring what is really happening in the country’s economy, because the gathering and reporting of data in China is not considered as reliable as it is in many countries.
Indeed, officials in some cities and provinces are also overstating economic output, corporate revenue, corporate profits and tax receipts, the corporate executives and economists said. The officials do so by urging businesses to keep separate sets of books, showing improving business results and tax payments that do not exist.
The executives and economists roughly estimated that the effect of the inaccurate statistics was to falsely inflate a variety of economic indicators by 1 or 2 percentage points. That may be enough to make very bad economic news look merely bad. The executives and economists requested anonymity for fear of jeopardizing their relationship with the Chinese authorities, on whom they depend for data and business deals.
The National Bureau of Statistics, the government agency in Beijing that compiles most of the country’s economic statistics, denied that economic data had been overstated.“This is not rooted in evidence,” an agency spokeswoman said.
Some still express confidence in the official statistics. Mark Mobius, the executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, cited the reported electricity figures when he expressed skepticism that the Chinese economy had real difficulties. “I don’t think the economic activity is that bad — just look at the electricity production,” he said.
But an economist with ties to the agency said that officials had begun making inquiries after detecting signs that electricity numbers may have been overstated.
Questions about the quality and accuracy of Chinese economic data are longstanding, but the concerns now being raised are unusual. This year is the first time since 1989 that a sharp economic slowdown has coincided with the once-a-decade changeover in the country’s top leadership.
Officials at all levels of government are under pressure to report good economic results to Beijing as they wait for promotions, demotions and transfers to cascade down from Beijing. So narrower and seemingly more obscure measures of economic activity are being falsified, according to the executives and economists.
“The government officials don’t want to see the negative,” so they tell power managers to report usage declines as zero change, said a chief executive in the power sector.
Another top corporate executive in China with access to electricity grid data from two provinces in east-central China that are centers of heavy industry, Shandong and Jiangsu, said that electricity consumption in both provinces had dropped more than 10 percent in May from a year earlier. Electricity consumption has also fallen in parts of western China. Yet, the economist with ties to the statistical agency said that cities and provinces across the country had reported flat or only slightly rising electricity consumption.
Rohan Kendall, senior analyst for Asian coal at Wood Mackenzie, the global energy consulting firm, said coal stockpiled at Qinhuangdao port reached 9.5 million tons this month, as coal arrives on trains faster than needed by power plants in southern China. That surpasses the previous record of 9.3 million tons, set in November 2008, near the bottom of the global financial downturn.
The next three largest coal storage areas in China — in Tianjin, Caofeidian and Lianyungang — are also at record levels, an executive in China said.
Many Chinese economic indicators already show a slowdown this spring, with fixed-asset investment growing at its weakest pace in May since 2001. The annual growth rate for industrial production has edged below 10 percent, while electricity generation was up only 3.2 percent in May from a year earlier and up only 1.5 percent in April.
The question is whether the actual slowdown is even worse. Skewed government data would help explain why prices for commodities like oil, coal and copper fell heavily this spring even though official Chinese statistics show a more modest deceleration in economic activity.
Manipulation of official statistics would also provide a clue why some wholesalers of consumer goods and construction materials say sales are now as dismal as in early 2009.
Keeping accurate statistics for internal use by policy makers while releasing less grim figures to the public and financial markets may also help explain why China’s central bank suddenly and unexpectedly cut interest rates earlier this month.
Studies by Goldman Sachs and other institutions over the years have strongly suggested that Chinese statisticians smooth out the quarterly growth figures, underreporting growth during boom years and overstating growth during economic downturns.
And Chinese officials have raised questions in the past about the reliability of Chinese economic statistics. An American diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks shows that Li Keqiang, widely expected to become premier of China this autumn, said in 2007 that he regarded China’s broad measures of economic growth as “ ‘man-made’ and therefore unreliable.”
Mr. Li told an American diplomat that he looked instead to three indicators that he described as less likely to be fudged: electricity consumption, volume of rail cargo and the disbursement of bank loans.
Jonathan Sinton, a China energy specialist at the International Energy Agency, said he had not heard of false data in China’s electricity sector, and he doubted it would be feasible at the five biggest electricity generation companies that together produce half of China’s electricity.
“If there is a problem, it is going to be located in the smaller producers,” he said, cautioning that even these producers would eventually have to submit accurate information to reconcile fuel, electricity and financial accounts.
Stephen Green, a China economist at Standard Chartered Bank, said that the Chinese economy was still likely to recover this autumn as extra bank lending started to stimulate spending.
But a survey of Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers, released on Thursday by HSBC and Markit and conducted independently of the government, gave the second-gloomiest reading for their businesses since March 2009. Only November of last year was worse, when many small and medium-size businesses faced a brief but severe credit squeeze.