Friday, October 17, 2014

Hong Kong protests: Mongkok ground retaken from police

from bbc





Pro-democracy demonstrators in Hong Kong have retaken streets in the Mongkok district cleared by the authorities just a few hours earlier.
Their victory came after clashes with riot police using batons and pepper spray.
Wielding open umbrellas as their only weapons, an estimated 9,000 demonstrators pushed back police lines.
They managed to retake territory south of a major intersection, stopping traffic in both directions.
The protesters are angry about China's restrictions on who can stand in Hong Kong's next leadership election in 2017.
Earlier, police said they had arrested 26 people for charges including assault during clashes on Friday evening. Fifteen police officers were injured in the clashes, they added.
Several protesters were seen being knocked to the ground during the latest scuffles, AP news agency reported.
Protesters scuffle with riot police in the occupied area in the Mong Kok district of Hong Kong, 17 October 2014Protesters opened their umbrellas as they pushed against police lines
Protesters build a barrier to stop riot police moving in the occupied area in the Mong Kok district of Hong Kong, 18 October 2014Protesters began rebuilding barricades after they retook some areas of Mong Kok
Protesters cry as some of the protesters are beat by riot polices in the occupied area in the Mong Kok district of Hong Kong, 18 October 2014Many of the protesters are students and young people
Protest group Occupy Central issued a statement (in Chinese) saying that the clearance operations ordered by the government had "triggered a new wave of occupations and worsened relations between police and citizens".
The Mong Kok camp in Kowloon is an offshoot of the original protest site around government offices in Admiralty on Hong Kong Island.
Protesters and police are also congregating at Admiralty, although there are no reports of clashes.
'Talks scheduled'
Earlier on Friday, Alex Chow from the Federation of Students said both his group and the government had agreed to meet next Tuesday, in talks that would be broadcast live on radio, the South China Morning Post reported.
Hong Kong leader CY Leung said on Thursday that the government was ready for talks, but China would not retract its decision to vet candidates for the 2017 elections.
The last time talks were scheduled they were cancelled by Chief Secretary Carrie Lam, who said it was impossible to have constructive dialogue while the occupation of city streets continued.
Protester numbers have dropped off since the start of the month, when tens of thousands were on the streets. But tensions escalated this week, with violent clashes as police cleared an underpass on Lung Wo Road near the chief executive's offices.
A video showing plainclothes police officers beating an unarmed protester, who is a member of the pro-democracy Civic Party, also sparked outrage.
Police said seven officers had been suspended pending an investigation.
line
Hong Kong democracy timeline
  • 1997: UK gives Hong Kong back to China under a 1984 agreement giving it "a high degree of autonomy" for 50 years
  • 2004: China says it must approve any changes to Hong Kong's election laws
  • June-July 2014: Pro-democracy activists hold an unofficial referendum on political reform; both sides hold large rallies
  • 31 August 2014: China says it will allow direct elections in 2017 but will pre-approve candidates
  • 22 September 2014: Student groups launch a week-long boycott of classes
  • 28 September 2014: Occupy Central and student protests join forces and take over central Hong Kong
  • 2017: Direct elections for chief executive due to take place
line

Sunday, October 12, 2014

ISIS approaches Baghdad as U.S. airstrikes continue

from cbs







|CBS News' Elizabeth Palmer reports from Baghdad on the continued fight against militants with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.


Saturday, October 11, 2014

Third car bomb in Baghdad on Saturday night kills 15

from reuters

BAGHDAD Sat Oct 11, 2014 2:01pm EDT


(Reuters) - A third lethal car bomb hit a Shi'ite neighborhood in Baghdad on Saturday night, killing 15 people and wounding 44 others, a police officer and a medical official said.
The suicide attacker detonated his car on a busy street in the Shaoula neighborhood, where a parked car had exploded 30 minutes earlier by an ice cream shop. That attack left eight dead and 18 wounded.
A suicide car bomb also went off in the adjoining neighborhood of Kadhimiya, killing 11 and wounding 27.

(Reporting by Ned Parker; Editing by Robin Pomeroy)

Thursday, October 9, 2014

Still no show: North Korea's Kim misses Party birthday

from usatoday

Kim Jong Un


Calum MacLeod, USA TODAY12:42 a.m. EDT October 10, 2014





BEIJING – The wait continues, so the speculation mounts, after North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un appeared a no-show Friday for a key political anniversary in Pyongyang.
Kim has not been seen in public since Sept. 3, sparking rumors of a serious illness or even a coup in the highly secretive state whose nuclear ambitions rattle the region.
In Seoul, a South Korean official played down the significance of Kim's absence. "It seems that Kim Jong Un's rule is in normal operation," Lim Byeong-cheol, spokesman for the south's unification ministry, told a press briefing Friday, reported the Yonhap news agency. He cited the North's dispatch of a top-level party-military delegation to the south last week, during which a senior figure conveyed Kim's greetings to South Korean President Park Geun-hye.
Although prolonged absences by North Korean leaders are not uncommon, this marks the longest such disappearance since Kim became Supreme Leader following the death of his father Kim Jong Il in 2011. The most recent television footage showed Kim, thought to be 30 or 31, limping heavily.
State media, in a rare comment on the ruling dynasty's personal matters, later said Kim was suffering from unspecified "discomfort." Gout seems a contender, given Kim's reported love of rich foods and alcohol, but the Reuters news agency, quoting an unnamed source Friday, said Kim had hurt his leg, required 100 days to recover, and remained in full control.
Kim was injured when he joined generals he had ordered to perform physical drills, the source said. North Korea's state-run television is usually dominated by propaganda footage of Kim providing "on-the-spot guidance" to people at farms, factories, schools and seemingly in every other aspect of North Korean life.
Despite the absence of new material since Sept. 3, Kim remains front and center as the third generation of the ruling family's personality cult, an all-pervasive phenomenon that effectively serves as the state religion. "Dear comrade Kim Jong Un is the symbol of dignity and invincibility of the Workers' Party and the banner of all victories and glory," said an editorial Friday in the Rodong Sinmun newspaper, a mouthpiece of the ruling party, Reuters reported.
If healthy, Kim would have been the central figure at events marking Party Foundation Day, Oct. 10. This year, the 69th anniversary, carries less significance and symbolism than the 70th in 2015, but Kim did attend commemorative activities on this date for the past two years, including a midnight ritual at the palace housing the embalmed bodies of his father and grandfather, Kim Il Sung, the regime founder and "Eternal President."
In a sign of global interest in Kim's whereabouts, China's state news agency Xinhua, one of the few foreign media outlets stationed in Pyongyang, dispatched a journalist to stake out the palace late Thursday, but found no police or security guards nearby that would suggest a Kim visit.
Xinhua and other Chinese media would not be permitted to report such speculation about their own Communist Party leaders, but have taken a sometimes critical view of Kim's belligerent behavior, despite Beijing being North Korea's only significant ally.
By late Friday morning local time, North Korean state media had not reported any Kim visit to Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, although it remained possible that reports later Friday could feature Kim's attendance at other anniversary events.
Some analysts cautioned that a coup remained unlikely. "Despite his extended absence, available evidence suggests Kim is still alive and still in power," Korea analyst John G. Grisafi wrote on the NKNews website Friday. "The amount of influence and power held by officials certainly varies and Kim, who is young and inexperienced, is not likely to be calling all the shots himself," he said. "However, North Korea's government is using a dynastic system and having a member of the Kim family -- or the "Paektu bloodline" -- in the top spot is critical to maintaining this system," wrote Grisafi. "Kim may need his advisers and officials, but they need him too."


Wednesday, October 8, 2014

Second Possible Ebola Case Reported In Texas

from huffpost


Posted: Updated: 
EBOLA
A person who is said to have had contact with Dallas Ebola patient Thomas Eric Duncan was taken to the hospital after reporting feeling ill, the city of Frisco, Texas, announced Wednesday.
NBC Dallas-Fort Worth reported that the person showing symptoms is an employee of the Dallas County Sheriff's Office, and had been in the apartment Duncan was staying in before he was hospitalized Sept. 28. Duncan passed away Wednesday morning.
WFAA reported that the patient is Sgt. Michael Monnig, and that Monnig went into the apartment unit without wearing protective gear in order to have a quarantine order signed.
CDC Director Tom Frieden said that he could not confirm whether or not the patient has definite symptoms of Ebola or if he had direct contact with Duncan. The state had been monitoring 48 people who may have come into contact with Duncan, but Frieden said that none of them had exhibited any suggestive symptoms.
(October 8) At 12:32 p.m. today, October 8, Frisco dispatch received a call from Care Now, 301 Main Street, regarding a patient exhibiting signs and symptoms of Ebola. The patient claims to have had contact with the Dallas ‘patient zero’. Frisco firefighter-paramedics are in the process of transporting the patient. They are also in the process of examining clinical staff and other facility patrons. That number other people impacted is unknown. No other information is confirmed, available at this time.
Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas also confirmed Wednesday that a patient was admitted to the hospital's emergency room over possible exposure to the Ebola virus.
"Right now, there are more questions than answers about this case," the hospital statement said. "Our professional staff of nurses and doctors is prepared to examine the patient, discuss any findings with appropriate agencies and officials. We are on alert with precautions and systems in place. At the same time, we are caring for routine cases which are completely separate in operations."
CBS News reporter J.D. Miles tweeted this photo of employees being escorted out of the Care Now clinic:
This is a developing story and will be updated.

Tuesday, October 7, 2014

Isil advance: Watch live coverage of the Turkey border with Syria near embattled Kobane

from telegraph.co.uk



Live camera shot from Kucuk Kendirciler, on the Turkey-Syria border near the embattled Syrian town of Kobane



This livestream will resume on October 8
Watch a live video feed from Turkey's southeastern province of Sanliurfa near the key Syrian border town of Kobane, which Jihadists are on the verge of seizing.
The fall of Kobane to Islamic State would mark a major victory for the jihadists, who are fighting for a long stretch of the border with Turkey for their self-proclaimed "Islamic caliphate".





At least 412 people, more than half of them jihadists, have been killed in and around Kobane since mid-September, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based monitoring group.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that the strategically important town was "about to fall", saying a ground operation was needed to defeat the militants.

Friday, October 3, 2014

Will ISIS brutality backfire?

from cnn


By Jason Miks, CNN
updated 12:58 PM EDT, Fri September 26, 2014

In this photo released by the U.S. Air Force, fighter jets fly over northern Iraq as part of coalition airstrikes in Syria on Tuesday, September 23. The United States and several Arab nations <a href='http://www.cnn.com/2014/09/23/world/meast/isis-airstrikes/index.html'>have started bombing ISIS targets</a> in Syria to take out the militant group's ability to command, train and resupply its fighters.


STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • CNN hosts an email conversation on ISIS with four terrorism experts and analysts
  • Paul Cruickshank: ISIS miscalculated effect of beheading videos on U.S. public
  • Nada Bakos: ISIS brutality may backfire; Shadi Hamid: U.S. allying with autocrats a problem
  • Cindy Storer: Is ISIS' Australia beheading plot something we can now expect worldwide?
Editor's note: Is ISIS actually sealing its own fate with the release of these gruesome beheading videos? How effective will military strikes really be? CNN hosts an email discussion on the threat posed by ISIS and how the U.S. should respond. CNN terrorism analyst Paul Cruickshank, former CIA analysts and terrorism experts Cindy Storer and Nada Bakos, and Brookings Institution fellow Shadi Hamid offer their takes. Their comments have been edited for clarity and style.
(CNN) -- The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria has managed to shock the world by releasing videos of the executions of two American journalists, a British aid worker and now a French tourist. The U.S. said Thursday that it believes it has identified the man in the video showing the execution of James Foley.
Either way, do you think the brutality on display could prove counterproductive? Is ISIS actually sealing its own fate in the long term with this tactic?
Paul Cruickshank: Yes, I think these videos will ultimately prove counterproductive to ISIS. The group's main goal is to create an Islamic state in Syria, Iraq and the surrounding countries. But these videos, along with the videos they post of themselves carrying out indescribably brutal massacres of thousands of Syrians and Iraqis, have shocked the world and rallied a growing coalition of powers to confront them. And even more importantly, ISIS's extreme brutality will inevitably eventually lead to a backlash from Sunnis across Iraq and Syria.
Paul Cruickshank
Paul Cruickshank
But while these videos horrify the vast majority of Muslims, they resonate with the group's radical support base around the world. This means that in the short term, they're generating a recruitment windfall. The beheadings make ISIS look 10 feet tall in the eyes of these extremists, able to stand up to a superpower waging a war on Islam and strike terror in the hearts of the disbelievers. Their selective and distorted interpretation of the Quran makes them convinced these brutal executions are sanctioned by God.
Some analysts say the beheadings were designed to goad the United States into military intervention in Iraq and Syria. I don't agree. Everything we know about the group suggests their main goal has been creating an Islamic state, so why would they want to deliberately jeopardize this?
So I think the beheadings were an attempt by the group at a calibrated response: They showed their supporters around the world they were responding to U.S. strikes in Iraq and satisfied their bloodlust, but they stopped short of the kind of attack that in their mind would invite an overwhelming American response. But they seem to have miscalculated badly, because they didn't understand how the American people would respond.
Paul Cruickshank is an analyst on terrorism for CNN and an alumnifellow at the Center on Law and Security at New York University's School of Law
Shadi Hamid: I think whether this backfires for ISIS depends, in large part, on what we end up doing. ISIS is a protostate that controls large swaths of territory and, as Paul points out, is much more interested in governance than al Qaeda ever was. The problem now is that we are allying with some of the most repressive regimes in the region -- Saudi Arabia and Egypt, for instance -- to fight ISIS. These regimes are more than happy to use the guise of counterterrorism to wage war on their political opponents at home. If lack of democracy and failure of governance contribute to the appeal of extremism, then excessive reliance on allies with such problems -- and a problematic regional order -- doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
Shadi Hamid
Shadi Hamid
Of course, we live in the real world, and that means working with autocratic allies who don't share our values or interests. But without a broader vision that takes into account the deeper roots of regional dysfunction, ISIS and groups similar to it may be able to thrive.
That broader vision is certainly lacking in Syria, which remains the gaping hole in our ISIS strategy. Our plan to train 5,000 fighters over one year is simply not enough to make a significant difference. In practice, this means that for all our rhetoric about "destroying" ISIS, our policy, at least for now, is effectively one of containment.
Meanwhile, there remains a temptation to coordinate with [Syrian President Bashar] al-Assad against ISIS, which would allow ISIS to usurp the mantle of Sunni resistance against a hated regime. The administration has ruled out any such coordination, but airstrikes against ISIS without a serious plan to boost mainstream rebel forces may still end up benefiting al-Assad (whose brutal policies are at the root of ISIS's rise to prominence in the first place).
In short, ISIS has angered the American people and the American government with its unabashed brutality, but so far our response has been remarkably lackluster, especially considering that ISIS has been a threat for well over a year. It is impossible to know what ISIS's intentions were when it beheaded James Foley and Steven Sotloff. Some of it may have been beyond rational motivation, the product of a rather potent mix of bloodlust, hubris, and messianism. We cannot know for sure, but we do know that militant and extremist organizations, even those with "states," can benefit from the overreach and misguided adventurism of greater powers. In this particular case, the Obama administration seems doomed to both overreach and underreach. Whatever the appropriate characterization of President Obama's approach, I fear that ISIS -- and perhaps, one day, its successors -- will get away with murder, and worse.
Shadi Hamid, a fellow at the Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World at the Brookings Institution's Center for Middle East Policy, is the author of "Temptations of Power: Islamists and Illiberal Democracy in a New Middle East."
Nada Bakos: Is this going to backfire on ISIS? Yes and no. If the old adage that there is no such thing as bad press holds true, ISIS is definitely garnering attention with these tactics. Recruits are also attracted to the perceived flurry of success by ISIS capturing territory and providing a governance structure so quickly. Historically, however, there is precedent of rejection by members of a terrorist organization and the local populace over brutal tactics -- think of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's al Qaeda in Iraq and the now defunct Armed Islamic Group in Algeria, known as the GIA.
Nada Bakos
Nada Bakos
ISIS is an evolution of al Qaeda in Iraq, which enacted a brutal terrorist strategy against the advice of al Qaeda's central leadership. Eventually, the local population in Falluja tired of being subjugated to his brutality and rejected his organization. Jabhat al-Nusra applied this lesson in Syria through charitable efforts and governance to galvanize local support and generate influence among Syrians.
Similarly, in the 1990s when the GIA violently opposed a secular government in Algiers, part of the leadership broke away and started another organization after realizing the brutality was alienating the Algerian populace.
So I don't think ISIS will self-implode because of these videos -- they've managed to embed themselves with a governance structure so quickly that they will be hard to root out. ISIS is also full of former Baathists who may or may not be on board with ISIS' ideology but are likely behind some of the major military successes.
ISIS holds its ground despite airstrikes
Pentagon: Strikes have been 'very lethal'
That said, if an inclusive government is formed in Iraq, it's possible they'll turn their back on ISIS. And the intensity of their campaign may well be diminished after the local populations become weary of their brutality to the point of coalescing militant groups to fight against them.
Nada Bakos is a former CIA analyst and was a member of the team created to analyze the relationship between Iraq, al Qaeda and the September 11 attacks.
Cindy Storer: I'm largely in agreement, but come at this from a different angle. The beheadings conducted by the self-proclaimed "Islamic State" both attract and repel. The question is which of these force will be stronger.
On the one hand, as Nada and Paul said, they help recruit other jihadis to [Abu Bakr al-]Baghdadi's cause. They are a symbol that Baghdadi won't compromise with the "enemy" as many jihadis believe current al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri has. Al-Zawahiri has opposed beheadings for years because they generate bad press, even though beheading has been a common practice in Islamic conquests since the earliest days.
This wouldn't necessarily be a problem for us except that Baghdadi has upped the ante by declaring a universal Caliphate in direct competition with al Qaeda. So he isn't just interested in Iraq and Syria -- he wants it all. And he's further legitimizing his claim in the eyes of the disgruntled by establishing a working government that follows early Islamic laws of conquest in the territory he takes.
Any time bullets fly, we are at war
Strikes in Syria bring civilian casualties
All this is causing tremors in the entire jihadi movement, worldwide. It reminds me of the late 1990s, when the Egyptian Islamic Group declared a ceasefire with the Egyptian government. Following this, many of their followers and associated groups switched their allegiance to al Qaeda.
On the other hand, al-Zawahiri isn't wrong about the reaction of the rest of the world, especially the U.S. Al Qaeda learned that lesson the hard way. To the extent that the people of the region -- and those of other parts of the world where jihadis have a significant presence, such as parts of Africa -- are seen to reject Baghdadi's tactics, Baghdadi's vision loses.
And there's the rub. A too heavy outside hand or a coalition of dictators risks further radicalizing many who yearn for the Caliphate, and who would then blame these forces for their setback, rather than blame ISIS. And if good government and security doesn't follow victory, the whole cycle continues regardless.
Cindy Storer is a 21-year veteran analyst of the CIA who specializes in terrorism and intelligence education. She is a lecturer in intelligence and national security at Coastal Carolina University in South Carolina.
Key U.S. ally beheads regularly
Could al Qaeda group still attack U.S.?
ISIS slays up to 300 Iraqi soldiers
Hamid: Cindy, you're right when you suggest that ISIS is a "revolutionary" organization in a way that al Qaeda never quite was (in a rather backwards-looking away, of course). I thought Graeme Wood put it particularly well in in one of the only pieces I've read that takes ISIS's religious inspirations seriously: "ISIS's meticulous use of language, and its almost pedantic adherence to its own interpretation of Islamic law, have made it a strange enemy, fierce and unyielding but also scholarly and predictable."
This is where ISIS's aspirations to governance become critical, and where Obama's description of the group as a "terrorist organization, pure and simple" seems both problematic and detached. Emphasizing the distinctive nature of ISIS -- and getting it across -- becomes difficult in a public discourse that is very focused on us, dealing with our Iraq demons and so on.
So, for example, the religious pedigree of ISIS, and the kind of intra-Jihadist competition that Cynthia pointed to, are important -- and certainly interesting -- to those of us who study Islamist movements. But how much of the historical and religious nuance is, as they say, "policy relevant?" To what extent should this impact the actual decisions senior U.S. officials are making and will make? I'm less sure about this part of it, and I'd be curious what others think.
Storer: Shadi, that's a really good question that I've been struggling with myself. I'm just going to throw some ideas out that have been knocking about in my head.
The plot in Australia to behead some random person might -- might -- be one sign that we should be concerned. Is that the type of plot we can now expect worldwide?
Woman secretly films life under ISIS rule
Kirby: 'This is just the beginning'
Source: Captured fighters told of ISIS plot
Another concern is that we know from history that when groups compete that sometimes they try to one up each other. With that in mind, can we imagine what a terrorist bidding war might look like between al Qaeda and ISIS?
Conversely, although the al Qaeda affiliates have swornbayat (allegiance) to al-Zawahiri, there appears to have been some internal debate. Might some swing over to ISIS eventually if they continue to show gains?
Nada -- you pointed out that although the brutality eventually backfires, ISIS will be hard to root out. What are we willing to risk in the meantime?
Cruickshank: Shadi, you are being diplomatic when you say that Syria is the gaping hole in America's ISIS strategy. At a time when "moderate" rebels are on life support in Aleppo, Pentagon press spokesman Navy Rear Adm. John Kirby has said it will take at least 12 months to vet and train 5,000 of them in Saudi Arabia. Increasingly squeezed by al-Assad and ISIS, will moderate rebels still exist as any sort of force in a year's time?
Moreover, it's far from clear "moderate" rebel groups like the Free Syria Army (FSA) will actually take the fight to ISIS. Their priority is fighting the al-Assad regime.
Another roadblock is the fact that the FSA has been cooperating on the ground with Jabhat al-Nusra, al Qaeda's affiliate in Syria. Can the United States safely provide weapons and money to a group working with a group committed to launching terrorist attacks on the United States? According to the U.S. government, al-Nusra has connections to al Qaeda veterans who have migrated to Syria from the Afghanistan-Pakistan border region.
U.S. officials say these operatives, known as the Khorasan group, are actively plotting attacks against Western targets. They also say they fear al Qaeda in Yemen is sharing bomb-making technology to bring down commercial passenger jets with Jabhat al-Nusra.
U.S. military officials are privately aware of these complex challenges. That's why last week, Gen. Martin Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, set out the limited goal of "disrupting" ISIS in Syria. But the worry is that creates a window of vulnerability. The airstrikes in Iraq have stirred the hornets nest, and ISIS may now seek to retaliate with attacks on the homeland of Western countries.
Their capability shouldn't be underestimated. They have training camps on a scale last seen in Taliban-run Afghanistan, a thousand Western recruits and tens of millions of dollars in cash reserves. So the group will retain the capability in the months ahead to train Western extremists to return back home to launch attacks.
Hamid: You know, it's really striking just how detached our Syria policy is from what's actually happening in Syria. So much of the debate in Washington is really about us, even though ISIS is a greater threat to the "Middle East" -- whatever that now is -- than to the homeland. To state the obvious, it's not always about us.
Iraqi PM: ISIS subway plot uncovered
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Qatar Emir talks ISIS, terrorism, Hamas
Mosul fell in June, so there's really no excuse for what came next in Syria. As a New York Times op-ed points out, "though Western attention is drawn to Iraq, it is Syria that has witnessed the most significant ISIS gains" in recent months. ISIS was closing in on Deir Ezzour in eastern Syria. For weeks, FSA rebels begged for assistance but were ignored, despite pleading their case to Samantha Power [U.S. ambassador to the United Nations].
And so it goes again in Aleppo, where mainstream rebel forces find themselves sandwiched between ISIS and the al-Assad regime. As Paul says, the rebels are "on life support" in Aleppo. We can have all the debates we want about whether we will have a strategy at some later point. We can debate whether training 5,000 rebels over a year will be enough. But while we wait for our Syria strategy, the very people we're supposedly hoping to support are at risk of yet another defeat in Aleppo, and this one will be difficult to recover from.
Cruickshank: I think we saw a really significant development late Sunday when ISIS spokesman Abu Muhammad al Adnani, a heavyweight figure in the group, called for lone wolf attacks by ISIS supporters in the United States and Europe. That was the first time I'm aware of that a senior ISIS leader explicitly called for attacks on the home soil of Western countries. While al Qaeda and al Qaeda in Yemen have called for such attacks before, ISIS's call will carry more weight because its radical supporters around the world believe the "Islamic State" has sovereign authority over Muslims worldwide.
Al-Adnani said ISIS "did not initiate the war ... it is you who started the transgression against us, and thus you deserve blame and you will pay a great price." Propaganda that may be, but I think al-Adnani's words provide further evidence ISIS was not actually trying to goad the United States into a war against it. Rather, the group miscalculated what the Western response would be to killing American and British hostages.
But now the gloves have come off. In this new tape, al-Adnani is basically saying "bring it on" to the United States and other Western powers. Not only did he promise to defeat any Western forces sent to Iraq and Syria, but he also promised ISIS itself will carry out "raids" on Western soil afterward.
Iraqi soldier describes ISIS assault
#NotInMyName campaign against ISIS
There will be significant concern now that ISIS supporters in the West may try to carry out attacks in the days and weeks ahead in ISIS's name. There will also be concern that hundreds of Syria Jihad veterans back in Europe may also answer the call.
So what do you make of the U.S. military effort launched this week?
Storer: They might buy some much needed breathing room, but they're not a solution in and of themselves. As we've all said, what happens after in the affected areas is critical. The group has significant allies/adherents elsewhere, and could move some operations if those allies aren't confronted simultaneously.
And I'd also add as a final thought that this whole "mess" is an example of what we can expect in Afghanistan once U.S. troops withdraw.
Hamid: I think the strikes are a first step, but what's the end game here? Without being embedded in a broader, long-term strategy, I worry that they might actually prove counterproductive, whether by strengthening the al-Assad regime's position, undermining rebel morale or helping ISIS to maintain local support.
This is where objectives matter, and as I said earlier, I'm afraid that our goals in Syria and the goals of the very local forces that are supposedly critical are misaligned in rather striking ways. The Obama administration is adopting what is primarily a counterterror strategy against a group that is not primarily a terrorist organization.
This might be all well and good if the goal is to simply degrade ISIS's capabilities. But even there, we run into problems. These strikes against ISIS are likely, at least in the short to medium-run, to increase the likelihood of attacks against the U.S. and U.S. interests. As Paul noted, ISIS spokesman al-Adnani's statement included the first ever explicit call by a senior ISIS leader for attacks against Western civilians.
We need to have an honest discussion about why we're doing what we're doing. We alternate between narrowly defining our interests while suggesting to our allies -- in this case the Syrian rebels -- broader, more ambitious objectives, only to quickly disappoint them when they find out we aren't quite serious.
Cruickshank: Yes, U.S. and coalition airstrikes in Syria may succeed in taking out some of ISIS training camps and command and control facilities, and they will undoubtedly constrain their freedom of movement. But they won't drive the group out of areas they control. We are getting reports ISIS fighters have been taking up lodgings among civilians in Raqqa, effectively using them as human shields. It will be virtually impossible to target them without also killing many civilians.
This is probably why after the initial bombardment Monday night, we are already seeing a slowing in the pace of U.S. strikes against ISIS. American spy satellites and drones can spot large-scale ISIS formations and training camps, but they can't tell who is who inside buildings in urban areas. U.S. intelligence doesn't seem to have good intelligence on the location of ISIS's leadership. If they had, they would have been targeted in the first strikes, like they did for the Khorasan group.
The worry now is that ISIS will initiate a crash program to launch terrorist attacks in the West. They don't even need training camps to do this. They can train Western recruits almost everything they need to know inside apartment buildings in Raqqa.
Bakos: I would say this. The airstrikes inside of Iraq could have a long-term impact because we are working with forces on the ground who can act on the strikes quickly and gain momentum. In Syria, it's a different story -- without anyone to follow up on the ground, ISIS has likely scattered into the nearby neighborhoods and will remain low profile for some time. It may slow down their ability to also capture more territory.
What the airstrikes won't do is offer a long-term solution to degrading ISIS and the al Qaeda cell referred to as Khorasan. Until there's a clear strategy to plug the power vacuum inside of Syria, a long-term solution isn't on the horizon.
A final question: What is the single thing that you would like to see done to counter ISIS?
Cruickshank: The one thing that will make the biggest single difference is splitting off Sunni tribes from ISIS in Iraq. But that will require a genuinely inclusive approach from Iraqi government. Despite some progress, don't hold your breath on that front. The delivery of suitcases with millions of dollars of cash may be more persuasive in the short term, like during the Anbar awakening.
Bakos: Along with our allies in the region, build a solid governance plan to put in place if ISIS starts to crumble with our allies in the region. The political calculus is just as, if not more, important than the military action.
Hamid: I know the very thought of it is unpopular in today's climate, but this is ultimately more about "nation-building" and "state-building" than it is about counterterrorism. In addition to coming up with an actual Syria strategy, we need to develop a longer-term vision that takes questions of democracy, reform and governance seriously. Obama needs his own "freedom agenda" to go along with this new "war on terror." That will require a willingness to put pressure on the very Arab allies we're working with to fight ISIS.
Storer: Recent days remind us too that we are still at war with al Qaeda, and they are still trying to kill us at home. But watch -- in a few weeks there will be calls to declare victory and go home, so to speak. What we need in addition to everything everyone has said is staying power. How many times will we let al Qaeda reinvent themselves?